New Study Examines the Role of Expectations and Duration on Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures.
March 31, 2020
Toronto – A new study based on social distancing measures in Italy demonstrates people’s intentions to comply with self-isolation norms depend on how authorities communicate their duration and what people expect the duration will be.
The study found that respondents, who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension of social distancing such as the extension is shorter than what they expected, are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, negative surprises such as extensions longer than expected are associated with a lower willingness to comply.
The study is based on a survey of Italians conducted by SWG, a leading market research firm, on March 18 to 20. It is co-authored by Profs. Nicola Lacetera of the University of Toronto Mississauga and Rotman School of Management, Mario Macis of Johns Hopkins University, Mirco Tonin of Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, and Dr Guglielmo Briscese of the University of Chicago. It was published online by the National Bureau of Economic Research on March 30.
“In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people’s expectations,” say the authors.
The complete study is online at www.nber.org/papers/w26916.
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