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Peter H. Pauly

Interim Dean of the Rotman School of Management, Peter H Pauly

    Peter H. Pauly

    Professor of Economics

    Degrees: Dipl. - Vw., Dr.rer.pol., University of Hamburg
    Email: Send an email to Peter H. Pauly


    Peter Pauly is a Professor of Economics and a Research Associate at the Institute for International Business. Peter's research is in the areas of econometrics, macroeconomics, and international economics, with a focus on model-based forecasting techniques and national and global economic modeling. He is co-editor of Economic Modelling and a past editor of the Journal of Forecasting. He is a policy advisor to many national and international organizations.

    Academic Positions

    1989-Present  Professor; University of Toronto
    1991-1993 1996-1998  Professor of Policy Modeling; Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto
    1981-1989  Associate Professor; University of Pennsylvania
    1976-1981  Assistant Professor; University of Hamburg
    1996-Present  Extraordinary Professor; University of Pretoria
    1984  Visiting Professor; University of Mannheim
    1992  Visiting Scholar; International Monetary Fund
    1986  Visiting Scholar; Bank of Finland
    1989, 1992  Visiting Scholar; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

    Selected Publications - Papers

    • Motivations for FDI and Domestic Capital Formation; with Walid Hejazi; Journal of International Business Studies; Issue: 34; 2003; Pages: pp. 282-289
    • The Indian Foreign Exchange Market and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Rupee; with Ila Patnaik; Global Business Review; 2002; Pages: pp. 195-216
    • The Determinants of Atmospheric SO2 Concentrations : Reconsidering the Environmental Kuznets Curve; with R.K. Kaufmann, B. Davidsdottir, and S. Garnham; Journal of Environmental Economics and Management; Issue: 25; 1998; Pages: pp. 209-220
    • The Effects of NAFTA on the Environment; with R. Kaufmann and J. Sweitzer; The Energy Journal; Issue: 14; 1993; Pages: pp. 217-240
    • Planning Horizon and Price Behaviour; with K.S. Lai; Economica; Issue: 59; 1992; Pages: pp. 53-62
    • Random Walk or Bandwagon: Some Evidence form Foreign Exchanges; with K.S. Lai; Applied Economics; Issue: 24; 1992; Pages: pp. 673-700
    • The Use of Prior Information in Forecast Combination; with F.X. Diebold; International Journal of Forecasting; Issue: 6; 1990; Pages: pp. 503-508
    • Endogenous Risk in a Portfolio Balance Rational Expectations Model of the DM$ Exchange Rate; with F.X. Diebold; European Economic Review; Issue: 33; 1988; Pages: pp. 25-53
    • Structural Change and the Combination of Forecasts; with F.X. Diebold; Journal of Forecasting; Issue: 6; 1987; Pages: pp. 21-40

    Selected Publications - Books and Chapters

    • Global Economic Modeling; Singapore : World Scientific Publ.; 2017
    • Reflections on Global Modeling: the State of the Art; in: P. Pauly (ed.), Global Economic Modeling (Singapore : World Scientific Publ.),; 2017
    • How Do Regional Traden Agreements Affect Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional FDI; in: L. Eden and W. Dobson (eds.), Governance, Multinationals, and Growth, Cheltenham : E. Elgar; 2005
    • Macroeconometric Models and the European Economic Union; with S.G. Hall and U. Heilemann; Berlin : Duncker & Humblot; 2004
    • Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Capital Formation; with Walid Hejazi; Ottawa : Industry Canada; 2002
    • Pricing to Market:Exploring New Export Price Equations for the LINK System; with B. Gangnes and H.Y. Li; in: B.G. Hickman and L.R. Klein (eds.) LINK Proceedings 1991/1992 (Singapore : World Scientific Publ.); 1998; Pages: pp. 331-351

    Academic / Professional Service

    2014-2015  Vice-Dean
    2013-2014  Interim Dean
    2006-2013  Vice-Dean; Academic
    1995-2006  Associate Dean; Research and Academic Resources
    1989-Present  Director; Project LINK, University of Toronto
    1981-1989  Associate Director; Project LINK, University of Pennsylvania
    1997-2015  Co-Editor; Economic Modelling
    1984-1990  Editor; Journal of Forecasting
      Consultant with: United Nations, New York; World Bank, Washington, DC; Commission of European Communities, Brussels; International Monetary Fund; Washington, DC; Asian Development Bank, Manila; UNCTAD, Geneva; CIDA, Ottawa; World Trade Organization, Geneva

    Honors and Awards

    2010  Honorary Doctorate; University of Pretoria
    1978-1980  Research Fellowship; German Science Foundation (DFG)

    Professional Affiliations/Memberships

    American Economic Association
    Econometric Society

    Research and Teaching Interests

    Teaches courses at the graduate and undergraduate level in Macroeconomics, International Monetary Economics, Applied Econometrics, Econometric Theory, Monetary Theory and Policy, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Techniques. Current research includes forecast evaluation techniques, learning in econometric models, combination of forecasts, international trade allocation models, taxes, uncertainty and foreign direct investment, trade composition and long-run growth.  

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