Main Content

Data Analytics in Healthcare - 2019

On March 4th the Centre hosted the second Research RoundTable on Data Analytics in Healthcare in partnership with the TD Management Data & Analytics Lab.

The scientific program, chaired by Professor Opher Baron, of the Rotman School of Management, the University of Toronto, included 9 faculty presentations of recent research to an audience of over 150 faculty, students, clinicians and other practitioners from Rotman, the University of Toronto and the broader healthcare community.

The research covered a range of topics falling into three distinct categories. First, general applications of analytics in healthcare, which included talks on product liability risk and its impact on innovation, the use of animals in drug development, and the role of wait times in referral decisions. Second, managing emergency departments, which included talks on shift effects in the ED, and applying discrete-event simulation to produce measurable change. The third theme focused on the application of analytics to management practice, and included talks on the cost of maintaining continuity of care in home healthcare and the use of analytics for health system planning.

Professor Abraham Seidmann, the Xerox Professor of Computers and Information Systems and Operations Management of the Simon Business School, the University of Rochester provided the keynote talk, sharing his thoughts on "the Power of Hybrid Medical Research: Merging Analytic Modelling with Clinical and Operations Data"

Engagement with the audience was strong, and the day sparked many conversations - both during the breaks and in the following days and weeks. 

The abstracts slides and a video of the presentations are available below.

Agenda

Session I, 8:40-10:00 am

When does product liability risk chill innovation? Evidence from medical implants

By Alberto Galasso, Professor of Strategic Management, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Co Authored with Hong Luo, Harvard Business School

Abstract

Liability laws designed to compensate for harms caused by defective products may also affect innovation. We examine this issue by exploiting a major quasi-exogenous increase in liability risk faced by US suppliers of polymers used to manufacture medical implants. Difference-in-differences analyses show that this surge in suppliers’ liability risk had a large and negative impact on downstream innovation in medical implants, but it had no significant effect on upstream polymer patenting. Our findings suggest that liability risk can percolate throughout a vertical chain and may have a significant chilling effect on downstream innovation.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides

Human Stakeholders and the Use of Animals in Drug Development

By Lisa A. Kramer, Professor of Finance, Department of Management, University of Toronto Mississauga
Co-authored with Ray Greek, Americans for Medical Advancement

Abstract

Pharmaceutical firms seek to fulfill their responsibilities to stakeholders by developing drugs that treat diseases. We evaluate the social and financial costs of developing new drugs relative to the realized benefits and find the industry falls short of its potential. This is primarily due to legislation-mandated reliance on animal test results in early stages of the drug development process, leading to a mere 10 percent success rate for new drugs entering human clinical trials. We cite hundreds of biomedical studies from journals including Nature, Science, and the Journal of the American Medical Association to show animal modeling is ineffective, misleading to scientists, unable to prevent the development of dangerous drugs, and prone to prevent the development of useful drugs. Legislation still requires animal testing prior to human testing even though the pharmaceutical sector has better options that were unavailable when animal modeling was first mandated. We propose that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Congress should work together to abolish regulations and policies that require animal use. Doing so will benefit pharmaceutical industry stakeholders, including patients whose health depends on drugs and the many people who rely on the financial well-being of pharmaceutical firms.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides →

Do wait times change referral decisions? Evidence from cataract referral patterns in Ontario

By Michael Pavlin PhD, Assistant Professor, Operations and Decisions Sciences, School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University
Co Authored with: Mojtaba Araghi PhD, Wilfrid Laurier University, Chryssa McAlister MD, University of Toronto

Abstract

Decentralized referral decisions remain the mechanism for access to specialized care in many health care systems and are associated with a range of policy outcomes. Determinants of these decisions are poorly understood and due to endogeneity issues the role of wait times are difficult to observe. We provide a framework for the analysis of referral decisions and apply it to cataract procedure referrals in Ontario. Our results do not show an association between the commonly emphasized wait between surgical consultation and procedure and the referral probability. However, the time between the referral and the surgical consultation is associated with increased probability referral.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides →

Session 2, 10:25 am -12:30 pm

Shift Effect in Emergency Departments

By Tianshu Lu, Opher Baron, Professor of Operations Management, Dmitry Krass, Professor of Operations Management and Statistics, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

Abstract

We study how a self-interested physician in an emergency department (ED) allocates her capacity between new patients and re-entrant patients, focusing on the time-dependent behavior pattern in a shift. Physicians are often paid according to the amount of service they provide, while EDs consider both average and variability of delay measures such as the time to physician initial assessment (TPIA). The variability is often measured by a specific (high) percentile of the delay. We characterize the physician’s optimal strategy in maximizing throughput; we show that this strategy has undesirable effect of on the TPIA in the ED. We analyze the physician's optimal strategy by using Markov decision process (MDP), and estimate its impact with a fluid queueing model. In both the MDP and the fluid model, we consider a tandem queueing system, composed of two stations: station 0 for new patients, and station 1 for re-entrant patients. This system incorporates two important features: abandonment of new patients, and capacity allocation between both stations. To our knowledge, this is the first paper investigating structural properties of queueing control MDP with abandonment in finite horizon. From the MDP we show that physician's optimal strategy is of two phases: in the first phase, she is more willing to serve new patients, while in the second phase, she is more willing to serve re-entrant patients. From the fluid model we show that in a busy ED, the p-th (p>50) percentile of TPIA increases when this two-phase strategy is applied. Our findings explain the behavior pattern observed in EDs and its impact on the system, shed light on the conflict of interest between ED physicians and managers, and provide guidelines on resolving this conflict.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides →

Applying Discrete-Event Simulation to Produce Measurable Change.

By Arun Dixit, Talha Hussain, Millicent Brown, Andrea Ennis, Sandy Marangos, Dr. Ryan Margau, Dr. Bonnie O'Hayon, Mike Sharma, Ann Shook, Dr. Kuldeep Sidhu, Jennifer Zadravec, Jennifer Quaglietta, North York General Hospital

Abstract

Background: In early 2018, North York General Hospital (NYGH) employed specialized software to produce a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) which modeled the processes for ultrasound imaging services at the hospital. The model was built using advanced statistical analyses and methods and was refined with numerous iterative input sessions with leaders and subject matter experts. Implementing ideas to produce measurable change requires a rigorous understanding of how a system or process behaves. This requires understanding if a change implemented to one area may lead to unintended impacts to other elements of a system. Furthermore, significant costs may be associated with the implementation of unsuccessful changes to a system. The DES model was used to analyze multiple potential change ideas in a low-risk environment and determine if the changes would be expected to produce unintended impacts to other areas of the system. Following this analysis, a specific recommendation was tested with a live-trial. All changes implemented were resource neutral for the Medical Imaging (MI) department, and the total number of ultrasound rooms and technologists were kept stable. One Team Attendant was added to support patient transport. As a result, NYGH was able to see a reduction in wait times for patients visiting the Charlotte and Lewis Steinberg Emergency who required ultrasound imaging. Results: As a result of a live-trial, the exam completion turnaround times have decrease by over 15% when compared to the baseline period, with a reduction in the variation in exam completion turnaround times. Conclusion: DES can be an effective tool to evaluate potential changes in quality improvement projects, particularly for operational processes where large amounts of data are available for analysis. Combined with expert clinical knowledge, a DES serves as a low-cost and low-risk technique for understanding the impacts of changes in a system. As a result of the trial, NYGH is exploring opportunities to adapt the simulation model to improve the service for other areas of the hospital.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides →

The Power of Hybrid Medical Research: Merging Analytic Modeling With Clinical and Operations Data

By Professor Abraham (Avi) Seidmann, The Xerox Professor of Computers & Information Systems, Electronic Commerce, and Operations Management, Simon Business School, University of Rochester.

Abstract

The rapid deployment of electronic medical records and various digital sensors such as EKG, MRI, and ultrasound, are presenting medical decision makers with a rapidly growing stock of Big Data. Medicine is a data intensive profession, and Big Data for healthcare has a huge upside potential. For instance, recent innovations in image analytics already support early detection, treatment planning and disease monitoring in oncology, cardiology and other areas. Solutions analyze radiology scans, pathology slides and other images to identify and quantify tumors, blood flow, strokes, body composition, gaps in care and several other issues. Yet, not all such applications of data intensive clinical systems have been successful and the bedside test is still a high hurdle to pass. The recent collapse of M.D. Anderson Cancer Center’s ambitious venture to use cognitive computing system to expedite clinical decision-making is a case in point.

analyze radiology scans, pathology slides and other images to identify and quantify tumors, blood flow, strokes, body composition, gaps in care and several other issues. Yet, not all such applications of data intensive clinical systems have been successful and the bedside test is still a high hurdle to pass. The recent collapse of M.D. Anderson Cancer Center’s ambitious venture to use cognitive computing system to expedite clinical decision-making is a case in point. of using (big) data for medical practice management applications, without having a complete understanding of the underlying mechanism. The first study will explain why the performances of clinical workflows depend not only on how various steps are carried out, but also on when certain clinical information items are collected along the workflow. Using our results from a long-term empirical study that looked at the implementation of a Radiology Information System (RIS) at a large regional network of radiology clinics, we reveal how clinics can achieve faster reports turnaround times ― even when it significantly increases the utilization of their bottleneck servers. (Journal of the American College of Radiology, 2009, MSOM, 2012). The second study I plan to mention, investigates the effects of information technology (IT)- enabled automation on staffing decisions in healthcare facilities. Integrating unique nursing home IT data sets from 2006 to 2012, we found that the licensed nurse staffing level decreases by 5.8% in high-end nursing homes but increases by 7.6% in low-end homes after the adoption of automation technology. Combing the above data with a mathematical model of a nursing home staffing, helps us explain that paradox. (Management Science, 2018). The final study I would plan on briefly touching on will discuss our empirical and analytical studies of Telemedicine, and some of the unexpected implications of these powerful technologies in chronic care delivery. (JAMA 2013, Management Science 2018). I plan to conclude the talk with six important implications for data-intensive medical research.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides →

Session 3, 1:30 - 3:30 pm

Interpreting analytics models

By Yaron Shaposhnik, University of Rochester
Co Authored with Fernanda Bravo, UCLA, Cynthia Rudin, Duke University, Yuting Yuan, U of Rochester

Abstract

Mathematical modeling is at the heart of many scientific disciplines. In management sciences, models are frequently used for understanding the dynamics of operational problems, making predictions, prescribing solutions, and informing decision-making. Yet, even the simplest of models may be nontrivial for practitioners and researchers alike, which creates an obstacle for their application in practice. In this talk, we will discuss the use of machine learning as a framework for interpreting predictive and prescriptive models for analytics.

Continuity of care for a home health care provider: how much is too much?

By Vahid Roshanaei, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Co Authored with Opher Baron, Oded Berman, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

Abstract

We consider a multi-period home health care (HHC) provider problem with several patients’ types under demand uncertainty. Given a fixed budget, we determine the number of home health care facilities, their capacities and locations, and the allocation of nurses to facilities and patients. We maximize the HHC total profit, defined as revenue minus the costs of opening and operating facilities, nurses (paid during transit, service, and transportation), and the hiring and firing of nurses. We incorporate three important features: (i) nurse flexibility, (ii) dynamic allocation of demand nodes to facilities, and (iii) inter-facility nurse pooling. We investigate the impacts of these features on the profit and continuity of care. We develop an Almost-Robust Discrete Optimization (ARDO) model to address demand uncertainty and solve it using a novel decomposition technique. We demonstrate our approach on an extensive case study for the city of Toronto, Canada. We investigate the impact of these three features under the capacitated and uncapacitated variants of the problem, varying budget levels and service prices. We demonstrate that the cost of full continuity of care may be as high as 2.5 times as the cost of service provisioning without continuity of care when capacities are restricted. We show that dynamic allocation increases profit when facilities are uncapacitated.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides →

Analytics for Health System Planning in Ontario: challenges and opportunities

By Ali Vahit Esensoy, Kiren Handa, Tannaz Mahootchi, Saba Vahid, Cancer Care Ontario

Abstract

Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) is a trusted advisor to the Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, with an evolving analytics ecosystem. Since 2012 CCO has been cultivating its advanced analytics capabilities to bridge the gap between data and decisions in health system management by developing products that give our partners new competencies in data analytics, forecasting and health system modelling. In this talk, we aim to provide an overview of the practice of analytics by the Data and Decision Sciences (DDS) team along with examples of previous work. We’ll also discuss opportunities and ideas to improve the development and adoption of analytics by practitioners and decision makers in the health system.

Watch a video of the presentation
Presentation slides →